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This past Mid-Q3, we saw Canadian home sales dip about 1% from the previous month and nearly 7% year-over-year. As someone who’s worked through many market cycles in Greater Vancouver since 2010, these numbers echo what I’m hearing from clients: economic uncertainty and rising mortgage costs are creating a more cautious environment for buyers and sellers alike. While Canada’s price index remained unchanged month-over-month and declined roughly 3% compared to last year, there was a modest 3% rebound in new listings after several months of slow activity. The sales-to-new listings ratio softened to around 49%, well below the long-term average of 55%, suggesting a more balanced—or even slightly buyer-leaning—market. With inflation risks, higher bond yields raising fixed mortgage rates, and markets pricing in a 60% chance of a rate hike in early Q4, it’s clear that conditions continue to evolve. For those navigating these shifts, up-to-date, local insight is key to making confident real estate decisions in Greater Vancouver.

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Canada’s housing challenge continues to demand our attention: the national housing agency estimates that to restore pre-pandemic affordability, we’ll need between 417,000 and 469,000 new homes each year through 2036. This is a significant increase over what’s currently being built. Even more concerning, there’s a projected supply gap of 187,000 to 238,000 homes annually over the next decade, with construction expected to slow down while demand remains strong. Most of today’s builds are already committed, and without a dramatic uptick in new projects, our national affordability goals could slip further out of reach. As someone who’s seen firsthand how local supply challenges impact buyers and sellers in Greater Vancouver, I know that bridging this gap takes more than just numbers—it requires coordinated action and commitment across the industry.

As someone deeply connected to the Greater Vancouver real estate landscape, I’ve seen how shifts in housing supply directly impact affordability. Lately, there’s been progress on affordability, but it feels precarious as ownership housing construction slows down. Recent estimates indicate we’d need between 417,000 and 469,000 housing starts each year to bring affordability back to pre-pandemic levels by 2036—a tough target, with the supply gap stubbornly in place.

Most of the new homes in major Canadian markets are now rentals, while ownership-focused development has pulled back noticeably. Even with more rentals helping balance things out, the pause in ownership builds is concerning. Although slower population growth has temporarily improved affordability, construction activity has dropped even faster than demand. When demand inevitably picks up again, we could find ourselves facing a supply crunch.

For those watching the Vancouver market and beyond, the lesson is clear: keeping ownership housing construction active is essential to protect affordability in the years ahead. This is a key focus for those of us committed to supporting clients through all cycles of the real estate market.

After a period of pronounced declines, Canada’s real estate market is beginning to show signs of recovery. Recent trends point to steadier inventory, improved sales activity, and modest price gains—developments that many of us in the industry have been watching closely. For 2026, forecasts suggest sales may dip roughly 4% to about 453,000 homes, with average reference prices softening by around 2% to approximately $794,000. By 2027, however, projections anticipate a 7% increase in sales (to about 484,000 units) and a slight rise in benchmark prices to nearly $801,000 nationwide.

It’s important to note this recovery will not be uniform across all regions. Ontario and British Columbia are expected to trail behind the national curve, and the condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver remain under pressure due to ongoing supply challenges. As someone who has represented clients throughout Greater Vancouver since 2010, I see this as a transition phase—more a shift from correction to recovery rather than a sudden return to boom conditions. For buyers, this evolving landscape may present more favorable opportunities as conditions continue to improve gradually.