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Looking ahead to 2027, Canada’s housing landscape is shaping up for some interesting changes. According to CMHC, we can expect a gradual improvement in housing conditions as both incomes and economic growth pick up. While sales are projected to recover, they’re likely to remain below the brisk pace we saw in the previous decade. The Canadian Real Estate Association is forecasting only modest price growth nationally—pointing to a market that’s stabilizing rather than surging. In some areas, higher inventory and softer demand might continue to give buyers more room to negotiate. For those navigating the Greater Vancouver market, understanding these subtle shifts becomes essential. Drawing from my years of experience in both residential and commercial transactions across our region, I find that staying informed and adaptable is key to helping clients make confident decisions in a changing market.

As we look ahead to the next few years, it’s clear that Canada’s housing market is beginning to find its footing. Early signs—like steadier inventory, improved resale activity, and price stabilization—signal that buyer confidence is returning, largely thanks to improving affordability and strong employment trends. One important question remains: how quickly will those who sat out the recent uncertainty step back in, especially now that many are in a stronger financial position? The forecast for 2026 points to a slight dip in resales (down around 4% to 453,000) and a modest decrease in benchmark prices (down about 2% to $794,000), before things start to pick up again in 2027. With borrowing costs hovering near their lows and the central bank expected to keep rates steady, there’s cautious optimism—though potential trade issues and energy volatility are still risks. Recovery is expected to reach all provinces by 2027, but the path forward is likely to be irregular, rather than a sweeping turnaround. In my experience working with clients across Greater Vancouver, these market shifts highlight the importance of staying informed and adaptable as the landscape evolves.

As someone who's navigated hundreds of residential and commercial real estate transactions across Greater Vancouver, I've seen firsthand how development fees shape housing supply and affordability. Recent findings from a national housing agency highlight just how powerful a lever these fees can be. For example, cutting development charges could make about 14% more residential projects financially viable—a meaningful boost, especially in markets like Toronto and Vancouver. In fact, if Toronto were to eliminate these fees altogether, it could meet half of its stated housing supply target.

When you compare the numbers, Calgary’s development fees are much lower—around $4,000 for a one-bedroom high-rise and up to $9,000 for a detached home. That’s a stark contrast to Vancouver, where fees range from $20,000 to $33,000 for similar properties. Of course, these fees fund critical infrastructure like roads, sewers, and administration, so finding the right balance is key.

For families looking for larger homes, reducing fees on family-sized units could offer much-needed relief in our high-cost market, where new builds often outprice comparable resale homes. This is just one of the many factors influencing our local market dynamics—and it’s another reason why deep local expertise matters when navigating Greater Vancouver real estate.

As someone who’s spent years navigating Greater Vancouver’s real estate market, I’ve seen firsthand how interest rate changes ripple through our housing landscape. Recent research from the central bank highlights a familiar pattern: when rates drop, housing demand picks up almost immediately—resale activity sees its full lift within 18 to 24 months. But the increase in new housing starts lags behind, often taking about two years before builders break ground in response. Strong job markets can make this effect even more pronounced, as buyers feel more confident and lenders are more accommodating. However, while lower rates eventually encourage more construction—especially since higher prices and easier financing make new projects viable—there’s always a delay due to planning and permitting, particularly for multi-family developments. What this means for those of us working and living in Canada is that rate cuts alone won’t solve affordability challenges. Supply just can’t keep pace with the surge in demand. It’s a reminder that monetary policy has its limits when it comes to making homes more accessible in our communities.

We’ve now seen 10 consecutive quarters where affordability has remained a pressing concern across Canada. As mortgage rate relief becomes less of a factor, the focus is shifting to home prices and income growth. Over the next year, most economists anticipate that mortgage rates will hold steady or potentially rise, so any improvement in affordability will depend even more on price moderation. It’s worth noting that slower population growth is expected to ease housing demand and help keep prices in check, while a strengthening labour market should support household incomes. From my experience working in Greater Vancouver, it’s clear that buyer and seller conversations are highly local—what’s happening in Vancouver or Toronto can look very different from Calgary or Edmonton. While an improving job market should help, economists caution that real progress on affordability will require ongoing moderation in home prices. As always, navigating these market nuances is about understanding both the broader trends and the unique factors shaping local opportunities.

This past week brought a wave of key economic data and policy developments that are shaping the Canadian housing landscape. With inflation, housing, and trade at the forefront, all eyes are on how early Q3 inflation and home sales numbers might influence the central bank’s next moves—whether that’s another rate hike or holding steady into 2027. Notably, a major real estate group has revised its 2026 outlook, predicting a slight dip in national sales this year rather than the modest growth initially expected. On the global front, a mid-Q3 deadline now threatens nearly US$20B of Canadian exports with roughly 50% US tariffs, as negotiations continue but with plenty of ground left to cover. This week’s updates on housing starts, retail sales, lending, and business activity offer fresh insights into construction trends, consumer spending, and credit conditions. Drawing on my experience with residential and commercial transactions across Greater Vancouver, I’m watching these shifts closely—each one could influence local opportunities and strategies in the months ahead.